Strategy Design & Modeling

This document covers the principles and methodologies for designing, developing, and validating systematic trading strategies, from initial concept through backtesting to deployment.

Trading Styles

StyleHolding PeriodTimeframeSignals Per Day
ScalpingSeconds to minutes1m-5m50-200
Day TradingMinutes to hours5m-1h5-50
Swing TradingDays to weeks1h-1D0-5
Position TradingWeeks to months1D-1W0-1
MangroveAI is optimized for swing and day trading strategies using 1h and 4h timeframes.

Strategy Components

Every strategy in MangroveAI consists of:
  1. Entry Rules — 1 TRIGGER signal + 1 FILTER signal
  2. Exit Rules — 1 TRIGGER signal + 0-1 FILTER signals
  3. Risk Management — Stop-loss, take-profit, position sizing via execution_config
  4. Asset Selection — Which instrument to trade

Backtesting Best Practices

  • Out-of-sample testing — Never optimize on the same data you validate with
  • Sufficient trade count — Need 30+ trades minimum for statistical significance
  • Realistic assumptions — Account for slippage, commissions, and market impact
  • Multiple market conditions — Test across trending, ranging, and volatile periods
  • Walk-forward analysis — Periodically re-optimize on rolling windows

Common Pitfalls

  1. Overfitting — Too many parameters tuned to historical data
  2. Survivorship bias — Only testing on assets that still exist
  3. Look-ahead bias — Using future data in signal calculations
  4. Ignoring transaction costs — Profitable backtests can turn negative with realistic costs
  5. Curve fitting — Optimizing until backtest looks perfect (does not generalize)
For the complete Strategy Design reference, see knowledge-base/04-strategy-design-modeling.md in the repository.